It's Saturday night again, and my devoted, but small, crew of funsters still has not found the last two persons who were at the meeting at Ancestry.com a week ago on Friday, as noted by the last Saturday night fun post. Were you stymied, or just bored?
OK, let's test your genea-Google-abilities tonight:
I am making a presentation next Saturday to a San Diego County society.
When is it, where is it, what is the society's name, and what is the title of the presentation?
This should be easy...tell me in Comments. Tell me how you found it, too.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
CGSSD Meeting Highlights - DNA and DVDs
I attended the Computer Genealogy Society of San Diego (CGSSD) meeting today at UCSD - the program description was posted here.
In the early session, I attended Corlee Morris's DNA Special Interest Group. This was the first meeting of this SIG, and Corlee made a presentation to summarize DNA as it applies to genealogy research. She provided a three-page handout with a glossary of terms and a list of DNA laboratories for Y-DNA and mtDNA testing. There were about 25 in attendance, and Corlee answered many questions from the audience.
The one new piece of information I got from this session was that FamilyTreeDNA has a link to a Time Predictor on its web site called FTDNATiP - see http://blairdna.com/FTDNATiP.html. The site has two tables, for 25 markers and for 37 markers, that calculate the probability that two participants share a common ancestor when matching on "X" number of markers within the last "Y" generations. For example, if a person has 24 out of 25 markers similar to another person, then the probability that they share a common ancestor in 4 generations is about 27%, in 8 generations is about 57%, in 12 generations is about 77%, in 16 generations is about 88%, and in 20 generations is about 95%.
The feature speaker of the day was CGSSD member Del Ritchhart, who spoke on Making a DVD of your Family History Research. There were about 60 in attendance, with 14 guests. During the hour, Del created a DVD presentation featuring photographs, videos and audio of his vacation to Ireland, using the program ProShow GOLD by Photodex (http://www.photodex.com/). He went through the steps involved in composing the presentation, including:
1. Selecting photographs, and editing them
2. Selecting your video clips, and inserting them into their places in the presentation.
3. Setting up transitions from slide-to-slide.
4. Setting up the Zoom function on slides.
5. Setting a background on portrait slides
6. Adding captions to your slides.
7. Adding music to your presentation from a file or a CD.
8. Adding voiceover descriptions to the slides using a microphone or audio clips.
9. Play the presentation from the beginning to see where editing or tweaking needs to be done
10. Burn the presentation and associated files to a DVD.
Del made this seem like it was really easy to do. He had "only" 34 photos (5 seconds each, 2 second transition) and two video clips, for a totla of about 5 minutes of presentation. He said that he has done up to 180 photos which played about 40 minutes using this software.
He noted that there are other software manufacturers that do this, but the ProShow GOLD was the best one that he has found. It sells for $69.95. Photodex allows a 15-day free trial of the software - the only restriction is that you cannot burn a DVD until you pay for the software.
I really enjoyed hearing Del's presentation and seeing his pictures from Ireland. The talk gave me some good ideas for how I want to organize my Seaver/Richmond family pictures (someday!!) for my extended family in order to preserve and disseminate them to everyone. Perhaps with the family history books, family movies and videos on the same DVD. This is another item for my long-term "to-do" list...
All in all, this was a good meeting on two interesting subjects.
In the early session, I attended Corlee Morris's DNA Special Interest Group. This was the first meeting of this SIG, and Corlee made a presentation to summarize DNA as it applies to genealogy research. She provided a three-page handout with a glossary of terms and a list of DNA laboratories for Y-DNA and mtDNA testing. There were about 25 in attendance, and Corlee answered many questions from the audience.
The one new piece of information I got from this session was that FamilyTreeDNA has a link to a Time Predictor on its web site called FTDNATiP - see http://blairdna.com/FTDNATiP.html. The site has two tables, for 25 markers and for 37 markers, that calculate the probability that two participants share a common ancestor when matching on "X" number of markers within the last "Y" generations. For example, if a person has 24 out of 25 markers similar to another person, then the probability that they share a common ancestor in 4 generations is about 27%, in 8 generations is about 57%, in 12 generations is about 77%, in 16 generations is about 88%, and in 20 generations is about 95%.
The feature speaker of the day was CGSSD member Del Ritchhart, who spoke on Making a DVD of your Family History Research. There were about 60 in attendance, with 14 guests. During the hour, Del created a DVD presentation featuring photographs, videos and audio of his vacation to Ireland, using the program ProShow GOLD by Photodex (http://www.photodex.com/). He went through the steps involved in composing the presentation, including:
1. Selecting photographs, and editing them
2. Selecting your video clips, and inserting them into their places in the presentation.
3. Setting up transitions from slide-to-slide.
4. Setting up the Zoom function on slides.
5. Setting a background on portrait slides
6. Adding captions to your slides.
7. Adding music to your presentation from a file or a CD.
8. Adding voiceover descriptions to the slides using a microphone or audio clips.
9. Play the presentation from the beginning to see where editing or tweaking needs to be done
10. Burn the presentation and associated files to a DVD.
Del made this seem like it was really easy to do. He had "only" 34 photos (5 seconds each, 2 second transition) and two video clips, for a totla of about 5 minutes of presentation. He said that he has done up to 180 photos which played about 40 minutes using this software.
He noted that there are other software manufacturers that do this, but the ProShow GOLD was the best one that he has found. It sells for $69.95. Photodex allows a 15-day free trial of the software - the only restriction is that you cannot burn a DVD until you pay for the software.
I really enjoyed hearing Del's presentation and seeing his pictures from Ireland. The talk gave me some good ideas for how I want to organize my Seaver/Richmond family pictures (someday!!) for my extended family in order to preserve and disseminate them to everyone. Perhaps with the family history books, family movies and videos on the same DVD. This is another item for my long-term "to-do" list...
All in all, this was a good meeting on two interesting subjects.
Papers, Images, Indexes and Searches
How often have you heard someone complain about Ancestry.com (or any other genealogy database) that "the Search just doesn't find my people" even though the searcher "knows" that the people are in a certain location at a certain time? I hear this all the time at my society meetings, and in comments on blog posts and in message boards.
How often is the Search engine for the database blamed? Almost always, I think. Is that really fair? I don't think so.
The reality is that there are four elements for a successful search:
1) The original record paper with the desired name was in a record set (e.g., census, military, passenger list, etc.) and available to be imaged.
2) An image of the original record paper with the desired name was made and is available, and the image was digitized for the record database.
3) The indexer that transcribed the name from the digitized image of the original paper was able to accurately transcribe the desired name (and other entries) as it appears on the paper image.
4) The Search engine for the database was able to find the desired name in the database using the searcher's search criteria.
What if:
1) The original paper is not included in the image collection? Obviously, the searcher won't find it. Why would this happen? Were portions of a record set lost, or damaged by handling, before the paper collection was imaged? Just think of how many unreadable names are at the bottom of some census pages!
2) The image of the original paper is so poor (due to faded ink or pencil marks, soiled or torn pages, or extra markings obscure names, etc.) that the names cannot be read. Again, the searcher cannot find it because it is unreadable.
3) The indexer cannot read the name accurately from the digitized image of the original paper, or the name on the original paper was not accurately spelled by the writer of the paper. The searcher might find it using advanced search techniques.
4) The Search algorithm is so limited that it does not use wild cards, soundex/metaphone systems, or other search criteria (location, birthplace, age or birth year, keywords, etc.) to find the desired name. The searcher might find it using advanced search techniques.
Is it any wonder that even experienced and expert researchers cannot find persons in record databases even when they know that the person should be there?
It is evident to me that the "missing names" numbers pile up rather quickly - they may be as high as 15% to 20% missing names for a census records search (see my Seaver surname study here). I found that I was missing about 15% of my known Seaver families in census records, and was able to find about 33% of the missing families using advanced search techniques (i.e., 5% of the missing 15%, and I never could find the other 10% of known families). Other surnames may have more or fewer problems. Other databases may have different problems due to their peculiarities.
I spent months looking for Robert Leroy Thompson (1880 TN -1965 NC) and his family in the 1900, 1910, 1920 and 1930 census (see The Ultimate "Dodging the Census" Puzzle). I still haven't found him, even though the odds are really high that he was in at least one of those four censuses (99.2% chance that he's in one of them if the miss rate for each census is 20%).
A researcher often doesn't know what s/he doesn't know. How does s/he know that "all" of the original papers were available to be imaged? How does s/he know that "all" of the images of the original paper were digitized? How does s/he know that "all" of the entries on a set of digitized images were indexed? The answer is that "s/he doesn't know for sure." S/he has to rely on the word of the repositories that hold the original paper, the digitized images, and the indexes. And that's where quality control - at all of the steps from paper to Search engine, come into play.
The ideal for the genealogy industry is that:
1. The record repository that has the original papers provides everything that it has to the people that image the collection, with some sort of quality assurance provision that assures all involved that all available original papers are provided.
2. The image people create digital images for every paper in the collection, even those that are badly damaged or unreadable, and even use advanced imaging techniques to bring out the best image possible. Again, some sort of quality assurance provision needs to be used to ensure that all original papers were imaged.
3. The indexing people use a double check quality assurance system that ensures the best possible index entries for every name on a record set.
4. The Search engine is versatile enough that many entries with significant problems can be found using advanced searching techniques.
My point in all of the above is this: It is not the sole fault of the Search engine or search algorithm when it cannot find your person of interest in a database. The problem is probably in one of the other categories. A large database provider like Ancestry.com, which often works from microfilms of paper records, usually does not control access to the original papers or the images of the original papers. It does control the digitizing of the image, indexing the records and the search engine, of course, and should have standardized quality control procedures in place for those steps.
Has anybody else done extensive investigations into records missing from specific databases, compared different databases for the same record set, or done a surname study that identifies persons missing from the records? If so, please let me know about it, with a link to, or the source of, the study if possible.
How often is the Search engine for the database blamed? Almost always, I think. Is that really fair? I don't think so.
The reality is that there are four elements for a successful search:
1) The original record paper with the desired name was in a record set (e.g., census, military, passenger list, etc.) and available to be imaged.
2) An image of the original record paper with the desired name was made and is available, and the image was digitized for the record database.
3) The indexer that transcribed the name from the digitized image of the original paper was able to accurately transcribe the desired name (and other entries) as it appears on the paper image.
4) The Search engine for the database was able to find the desired name in the database using the searcher's search criteria.
What if:
1) The original paper is not included in the image collection? Obviously, the searcher won't find it. Why would this happen? Were portions of a record set lost, or damaged by handling, before the paper collection was imaged? Just think of how many unreadable names are at the bottom of some census pages!
2) The image of the original paper is so poor (due to faded ink or pencil marks, soiled or torn pages, or extra markings obscure names, etc.) that the names cannot be read. Again, the searcher cannot find it because it is unreadable.
3) The indexer cannot read the name accurately from the digitized image of the original paper, or the name on the original paper was not accurately spelled by the writer of the paper. The searcher might find it using advanced search techniques.
4) The Search algorithm is so limited that it does not use wild cards, soundex/metaphone systems, or other search criteria (location, birthplace, age or birth year, keywords, etc.) to find the desired name. The searcher might find it using advanced search techniques.
Is it any wonder that even experienced and expert researchers cannot find persons in record databases even when they know that the person should be there?
It is evident to me that the "missing names" numbers pile up rather quickly - they may be as high as 15% to 20% missing names for a census records search (see my Seaver surname study here). I found that I was missing about 15% of my known Seaver families in census records, and was able to find about 33% of the missing families using advanced search techniques (i.e., 5% of the missing 15%, and I never could find the other 10% of known families). Other surnames may have more or fewer problems. Other databases may have different problems due to their peculiarities.
I spent months looking for Robert Leroy Thompson (1880 TN -1965 NC) and his family in the 1900, 1910, 1920 and 1930 census (see The Ultimate "Dodging the Census" Puzzle). I still haven't found him, even though the odds are really high that he was in at least one of those four censuses (99.2% chance that he's in one of them if the miss rate for each census is 20%).
A researcher often doesn't know what s/he doesn't know. How does s/he know that "all" of the original papers were available to be imaged? How does s/he know that "all" of the images of the original paper were digitized? How does s/he know that "all" of the entries on a set of digitized images were indexed? The answer is that "s/he doesn't know for sure." S/he has to rely on the word of the repositories that hold the original paper, the digitized images, and the indexes. And that's where quality control - at all of the steps from paper to Search engine, come into play.
The ideal for the genealogy industry is that:
1. The record repository that has the original papers provides everything that it has to the people that image the collection, with some sort of quality assurance provision that assures all involved that all available original papers are provided.
2. The image people create digital images for every paper in the collection, even those that are badly damaged or unreadable, and even use advanced imaging techniques to bring out the best image possible. Again, some sort of quality assurance provision needs to be used to ensure that all original papers were imaged.
3. The indexing people use a double check quality assurance system that ensures the best possible index entries for every name on a record set.
4. The Search engine is versatile enough that many entries with significant problems can be found using advanced searching techniques.
My point in all of the above is this: It is not the sole fault of the Search engine or search algorithm when it cannot find your person of interest in a database. The problem is probably in one of the other categories. A large database provider like Ancestry.com, which often works from microfilms of paper records, usually does not control access to the original papers or the images of the original papers. It does control the digitizing of the image, indexing the records and the search engine, of course, and should have standardized quality control procedures in place for those steps.
Has anybody else done extensive investigations into records missing from specific databases, compared different databases for the same record set, or done a surname study that identifies persons missing from the records? If so, please let me know about it, with a link to, or the source of, the study if possible.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Checking out the Family History Library - Post 2
I posted yesterday about the Family History Library in Salt Lake City, showing pictures of some of the floors. In this post, I want to show some of the equipment that I used during my visit:
First, the individual computer station on every floor of the library. All computers I saw are of fairly recent vintage, have Windows XP installed, and permit use of a USB flash drive using the USB cord on the desktop that is attached to the CPU (you can see the USB flash drive in the photo below between the mouse and the keyboard):
The microfilm printer is how a user obtains an image from the microfilm on paper. You bring your microfilm (on both sprockets) from the reader to the printer area, load it on (upside down relative to what it was on the microfilm reader), and center your image (you can focus, magnify, and rotate the image), insert your print copy card, and press the print button. Each page costs 23 cents (deducted from your print copy card). There were about 10 microfilm printers on each floor with microfilms, some of them dedicated to 16 mm and 35 mm films. A typical microfilm printer station is shown below:
You can see my USB flash drive installed on the cable between the mousepad and the scanner machine. This machine has much better scrolling capability than the microfilm printer. I found that this machine was the cheapest (it's free!) and easiest to use of all of the copiers.
First, the individual computer station on every floor of the library. All computers I saw are of fairly recent vintage, have Windows XP installed, and permit use of a USB flash drive using the USB cord on the desktop that is attached to the CPU (you can see the USB flash drive in the photo below between the mouse and the keyboard):
Using the USB flash drive, you can save individual images and web pages but cannot do screen captures or use a word processor or presentation software.
When you find a microfilm that you want to read, you take it to a microfilm reader station (there are hundreds!), turn it on, feed the microfilm, scroll to the page you want, and read:
I experimented a bit with taking a picture without flash of the image on the screen, but could never get a good enough vantage point for the entire page without significant parallax. To get an image to take home, the user needs to make a copy from the microfilm printer or save the image to a USB flash drive using the microfilm scanner machine.
For books or periodicals, the options for capturing an image are taking a digital picture of each page, or using the photocopy machines. Photocopy pages cost 4 cents each. The photocopy area looks like this on all floors:
The microfilm printer is how a user obtains an image from the microfilm on paper. You bring your microfilm (on both sprockets) from the reader to the printer area, load it on (upside down relative to what it was on the microfilm reader), and center your image (you can focus, magnify, and rotate the image), insert your print copy card, and press the print button. Each page costs 23 cents (deducted from your print copy card). There were about 10 microfilm printers on each floor with microfilms, some of them dedicated to 16 mm and 35 mm films. A typical microfilm printer station is shown below:
Some of the printer stations have 11 x 17 paper, and all have 8.5 x 11 paper loaded.
The microfilm scanner/printer stations are the most modern machines in the FHL. However, there are only two of them on each floor with microfilms. There are waiting lines occasionally (maybe even always on busy days). You load your microfilm on the microfilm scanner using both sprockets, scroll to the image you want, focus, rotate, magnify and center the image, attach your USB flash drive to the port at the end of the cable on the desktop, define the parameters for the image copy, and press the Scan button on the computer screen. The FHL directions are very easy to follow and eventually you Save all of your images to a user-defined directory (they wipe them all off on Mondays, apparently). Then you can transfer all of them to your USB flash drive. The microfilm scanner/printer is shown below (scanner on the left, showing the film image to be scanned; the computer screen is on the right with the scanned images showing on the screen. the colored buttons at the top of the computer screen control scanning, saving, etc.):
You can see my USB flash drive installed on the cable between the mousepad and the scanner machine. This machine has much better scrolling capability than the microfilm printer. I found that this machine was the cheapest (it's free!) and easiest to use of all of the copiers.
I struggled a bit finding the right image area to save, thinking that the movable orange margins would enable me to define the image area. The machine has a bit of an independent mind, and I had to work a bit to obtain a complete image of the information I wanted. I ended up putting images from each source film into a separate directory, since the saved images are labeled Page001.tif, Page002.tif, etc. I saved each TIF file at 300 or 400 dpi (the user can control this) and the file size were reasonable.
In hindsight, I should have used the microfilm scanner more, and saved the printing costs while getting a clear digital image instead of printed pages from the microfilm printer (which I may end up scanning anyway). In the two days, I looked at about 30 microfilms and made about 40 printed pages and about 20 digital images.
Thank you, Dick Eastman!
Most genealogy blog readers know who Dick Eastman is - he publishes the Eastman's Online Genealogy Newsletter which is chock full of genealogy news. Dick often posts several news items each day, and occasional opinion pieces.
Today is the 13th Anniversary of the start of Dick's newsletter that he started in 1996. You can read a concise history of this effort in Dick's post, This Newsletter is Thirteen Years Old!
Do we realize what a treasure that Dick's thirteen years of newsletter archives is? It is the history of genealogy research and also personal technology. If you read Dick's newsletter from the beginning, you can see companies start up, mature, succeed or fail; you can read about announcements of software, publications, societies, etc. You can read about cruises, conferences, personalities, etc. Dick has tried almost every technology gadget that comes along, uses the ones he likes, and carries many with him on his travels.
I've had the pleasure to meet Dick several times in the last year at conferences and meetings. He is a very interesting man with a lifetime of genealogy experience and a great sense of humor, and a real nose for genealogy news.
I raise my cup of hot chocolate to Dick this morning, and shout a loud "for he's a jolly good genealogist" to Dick, and thank him for his contributions to the genealogy world.
Today is the 13th Anniversary of the start of Dick's newsletter that he started in 1996. You can read a concise history of this effort in Dick's post, This Newsletter is Thirteen Years Old!
Do we realize what a treasure that Dick's thirteen years of newsletter archives is? It is the history of genealogy research and also personal technology. If you read Dick's newsletter from the beginning, you can see companies start up, mature, succeed or fail; you can read about announcements of software, publications, societies, etc. You can read about cruises, conferences, personalities, etc. Dick has tried almost every technology gadget that comes along, uses the ones he likes, and carries many with him on his travels.
I've had the pleasure to meet Dick several times in the last year at conferences and meetings. He is a very interesting man with a lifetime of genealogy experience and a great sense of humor, and a real nose for genealogy news.
I raise my cup of hot chocolate to Dick this morning, and shout a loud "for he's a jolly good genealogist" to Dick, and thank him for his contributions to the genealogy world.
Article Index to "Mayflower Descendant" 1899 to 2008
Dale H. Cook has posted the latest revision of his "Consolidated Contents of Mayflower Descendant." This 532 kb PDF file lists the contents of every issue from January, 1899 (Vol. 1, No. 1) to Summer, 2008 (Vol. 57, No. 2). The list is of titles only, not a name index from the periodicals.
It can be viewed online or downloaded from:http://plymouthcolony.net/resources/periodicals.html#md.
Dale posted this notice on the Barnstable County, Massachusetts (MABARNST-L) mailing list, and perhaps to other county lists also (I only subscribe to Barnstable).
The Complete Mayflower Descendant, Volumes 1-46 can be purchased on CD-ROM from www.genealogy.com for $49.99 - see http://www.genealogy.com/203facd.html. This has a comprehensive index for Volumes 1-34 (which were published 1899 to 1937). It is also part of a www.genealogy.com subscription.
Search and Research has Volumes 1-43 available on CD-ROM for $24.95 at http://www.searchresearchpub.com/mayflower.html. This is fully searchable and every-word indexed.
Indexes like this are very valuable to far away researchers like me who don't subscribe to the particular periodical or journal. Reviewing just the last ten years, I see about ten articles that may have information about some of my ancestors. I know that the Carlsbad Library has this journal, so I'm going to put it on my "to-do" list for my next visit to Carlsbad.
It can be viewed online or downloaded from:http://plymouthcolony.net/resources/periodicals.html#md.
Dale posted this notice on the Barnstable County, Massachusetts (MABARNST-L) mailing list, and perhaps to other county lists also (I only subscribe to Barnstable).
The Complete Mayflower Descendant, Volumes 1-46 can be purchased on CD-ROM from www.genealogy.com for $49.99 - see http://www.genealogy.com/203facd.html. This has a comprehensive index for Volumes 1-34 (which were published 1899 to 1937). It is also part of a www.genealogy.com subscription.
Search and Research has Volumes 1-43 available on CD-ROM for $24.95 at http://www.searchresearchpub.com/mayflower.html. This is fully searchable and every-word indexed.
Indexes like this are very valuable to far away researchers like me who don't subscribe to the particular periodical or journal. Reviewing just the last ten years, I see about ten articles that may have information about some of my ancestors. I know that the Carlsbad Library has this journal, so I'm going to put it on my "to-do" list for my next visit to Carlsbad.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
A Winter Non-photo essay
When I saw the topic for the next Carnival of Genealogy was "A Winter Photo Essay," I thought "well, I'll just have to miss it because I don't have ANY photos of my own that shows San Diego in winter."
I posted about my two San Diego snow experiences in Day 18 - Christmas Weather, so I won't repeat it here. Suffice it to say that it rarely snows in San Diego, although hope springs eternal in the human heart! I don't have pictures from these special days, unfortunately.
Knowing that I had no photos of snow in San Diego, I figured "well, I could go somewhere for the winter photo essay." So that's what I did:
* I accepted the invitation from TGN to go to Salt Lake City to meet with them in January
* When I got there on Thursday 1/8 last week, the ground was covered with snow after several days of it. The roads were all plowed of course, but the snow was at least 6 inches deep on the sidewalk strips and vegetation areas at the hotel.
* On Thursday night, DearMYRTLE drove me back to the hotel in the snow but it wasn't falling hard - I figured that there would be more chances to get a really cool "Randy in the snow" picture.
* Nope. OK, I thought - I'll take a picture tomorrow of the hotel and the FHL and TGN and the mountains in the sunlight before it all melts.
* Tomorrow came and went, and the next three days too, since I was busy at TGN, the FHL and eating out with the folks.
* I woke up on Tuesday morning late, thought "I gotta take a picture of the snow today" and went over to breakfast and there wasn't much left and it was dirty and mushy. Then I hurried off to the airport and forgot to take a picture.
Drat!
It was really cold there - here's a picture of Harold Henderson (nice hat!), Angela McGhie (friendly, fun) and yours truly (cold, see my teeth chattering and my forehead freezing?) outside the restaurant Sunday night. Can this count? We had a great time eating and talking and laughing and planning and telling stories.
There may be a little snow in the background...
I posted about my two San Diego snow experiences in Day 18 - Christmas Weather, so I won't repeat it here. Suffice it to say that it rarely snows in San Diego, although hope springs eternal in the human heart! I don't have pictures from these special days, unfortunately.
Knowing that I had no photos of snow in San Diego, I figured "well, I could go somewhere for the winter photo essay." So that's what I did:
* I accepted the invitation from TGN to go to Salt Lake City to meet with them in January
* When I got there on Thursday 1/8 last week, the ground was covered with snow after several days of it. The roads were all plowed of course, but the snow was at least 6 inches deep on the sidewalk strips and vegetation areas at the hotel.
* On Thursday night, DearMYRTLE drove me back to the hotel in the snow but it wasn't falling hard - I figured that there would be more chances to get a really cool "Randy in the snow" picture.
* Nope. OK, I thought - I'll take a picture tomorrow of the hotel and the FHL and TGN and the mountains in the sunlight before it all melts.
* Tomorrow came and went, and the next three days too, since I was busy at TGN, the FHL and eating out with the folks.
* I woke up on Tuesday morning late, thought "I gotta take a picture of the snow today" and went over to breakfast and there wasn't much left and it was dirty and mushy. Then I hurried off to the airport and forgot to take a picture.
Drat!
It was really cold there - here's a picture of Harold Henderson (nice hat!), Angela McGhie (friendly, fun) and yours truly (cold, see my teeth chattering and my forehead freezing?) outside the restaurant Sunday night. Can this count? We had a great time eating and talking and laughing and planning and telling stories.
There may be a little snow in the background...
I must admit that it wasn't the most important thing on my trip. And it left me without the photos that I'm supposed to put in this essay.
How will the economy affect genealogy?
I was asked this question three times while I was in Salt Lake City - "how do you think genealogy will be affected by a downturn in the economy?"
My response was basically "it really depends on the situation - is it a full depression, a long recession, a mild recession? Deflation or inflation?" Each of those will affect consumers, institutions and businesses in different ways.
The considerations as I see them:
* Genealogy businesses, like commercial software (Legacy, RootsMagic, TMG, etc.), database companies (e.g., TGN, WVR, Footnote, GenealogyBank, FindMyPast, etc.) and publications (e.g. Everton's GenHelper, Family Tree Magazine, etc.), may suffer a reduction in new and current customers, which will reduce income and slow or eliminate technology improvements and content acquisition. A company with a positive balance sheet throughout should survive, but a company with a negative balance sheet may need more investment, may be acquired or may close completely. With high inflation, prices may be raised for database and magazine subscriptions.
* Genealogy institutions, like the Family History Library, NEHGS, Allen County Public Library, etc. may see a reduction in fly-in patrons, but may see more drive-in patrons. Staff and hours may be reduced if institution income declines significantly.
* Government offices, like the National Archives, State Archives and local or regional libraries, may reduce hours, eliminate services and/or raise prices in response to budget reductions caused by the economy and government decisions.
* Genealogy societies may see a reduction in memberships, especially if a recession is long and/or deep, resulting in high unemployment. If there is a period of high inflation, members on fixed incomes may be squeezed. Large societies that sponsor seminars and conferences may see fewer fly-in customers and more drive-in customers. Societies may be able to reduce costs by publishing newsletters online rather than mailing.
* Individual genealogists may take fewer fly-out trips to conferences, vacations or research excursions if unemployment rises higher or prices rise significantly. However, genealogists may make more trips to local or semi-local repositories. The price of gas will be important here.
If a recession is long, or the country suffers a depression with deflation, then the genealogy industry is going to suffer because credit will be tight and unemployment will be high.
If the economy has a high inflation rate, then older genealogists living on a fixed income will really suffer due to higher prices and stagnant income. The result will be fewer long trips and vacations, fewer books and magazines purchased, fewer software and database purchases, and perhaps more visits to close repositories along with more use of the Internet (assuming it is not priced much higher).
Nobody has a crystal ball about the current and future economy, or the impact on a group of people. My hope is that the recession is short and the country has a short recovery to steady growth (I'm an optimist!). Obviously, the tax, spending and monetary policies of the new administration will affect the economy, and by extension the genealogy industry.
I am not an economist, just a concerned investor and old guy. I posted this in order to define my thoughts and concerns.
It's an interesting question, and I want to ask your opinion too. Please comment if you care to.
UPDATE 1/16: I edited the original text a bit. Leland Meitzler posted a summary of his persaonal view here.
My response was basically "it really depends on the situation - is it a full depression, a long recession, a mild recession? Deflation or inflation?" Each of those will affect consumers, institutions and businesses in different ways.
The considerations as I see them:
* Genealogy businesses, like commercial software (Legacy, RootsMagic, TMG, etc.), database companies (e.g., TGN, WVR, Footnote, GenealogyBank, FindMyPast, etc.) and publications (e.g. Everton's GenHelper, Family Tree Magazine, etc.), may suffer a reduction in new and current customers, which will reduce income and slow or eliminate technology improvements and content acquisition. A company with a positive balance sheet throughout should survive, but a company with a negative balance sheet may need more investment, may be acquired or may close completely. With high inflation, prices may be raised for database and magazine subscriptions.
* Genealogy institutions, like the Family History Library, NEHGS, Allen County Public Library, etc. may see a reduction in fly-in patrons, but may see more drive-in patrons. Staff and hours may be reduced if institution income declines significantly.
* Government offices, like the National Archives, State Archives and local or regional libraries, may reduce hours, eliminate services and/or raise prices in response to budget reductions caused by the economy and government decisions.
* Genealogy societies may see a reduction in memberships, especially if a recession is long and/or deep, resulting in high unemployment. If there is a period of high inflation, members on fixed incomes may be squeezed. Large societies that sponsor seminars and conferences may see fewer fly-in customers and more drive-in customers. Societies may be able to reduce costs by publishing newsletters online rather than mailing.
* Individual genealogists may take fewer fly-out trips to conferences, vacations or research excursions if unemployment rises higher or prices rise significantly. However, genealogists may make more trips to local or semi-local repositories. The price of gas will be important here.
If a recession is long, or the country suffers a depression with deflation, then the genealogy industry is going to suffer because credit will be tight and unemployment will be high.
If the economy has a high inflation rate, then older genealogists living on a fixed income will really suffer due to higher prices and stagnant income. The result will be fewer long trips and vacations, fewer books and magazines purchased, fewer software and database purchases, and perhaps more visits to close repositories along with more use of the Internet (assuming it is not priced much higher).
Nobody has a crystal ball about the current and future economy, or the impact on a group of people. My hope is that the recession is short and the country has a short recovery to steady growth (I'm an optimist!). Obviously, the tax, spending and monetary policies of the new administration will affect the economy, and by extension the genealogy industry.
I am not an economist, just a concerned investor and old guy. I posted this in order to define my thoughts and concerns.
It's an interesting question, and I want to ask your opinion too. Please comment if you care to.
UPDATE 1/16: I edited the original text a bit. Leland Meitzler posted a summary of his persaonal view here.
Checking out the Family History Library - Post 1
I know that some of my readers have never been to the Family History Library in Salt Lake City, so I thought that I would show some photographs of the place (unfortunately, not all of my shots came out well).
The Library entrance looks like this:
There are five floors:
B2 - British Isles (including Australia/NZ) records (films and books)
B1 - International Records (films and books)
1 - Main floor, Family History Books
2 - US/Canada Census books and Microfilms
3 - US/Canada Locality Books and Maps
Each floor has an area with computers to access the FHL Catalog, the FHL databases, and the online commercial databases. Each floor with books has a photocopy area, a set of microfilm printers and two microfilm scanner/printers.
Photocopies are paid for with a Print Card, which cost 60 cents and can be loaded with bills up to $20. A hard copy on a copy machine costs only 5 cents, but a copy on the microfilm printer costs 23 cents. The computers and the microfilm scanners can put images on a user's flash drive for free.
This is a view of the Family History Book stacks on the first floor:
This is a view of the computer area on the third floor:
In the computer area, you send your print requests to print stations (visible above) where you pay for your prints then get them printed out.
I will show some of the copy hardware in a later post.
The Library entrance looks like this:
There are five floors:
B2 - British Isles (including Australia/NZ) records (films and books)
B1 - International Records (films and books)
1 - Main floor, Family History Books
2 - US/Canada Census books and Microfilms
3 - US/Canada Locality Books and Maps
Each floor has an area with computers to access the FHL Catalog, the FHL databases, and the online commercial databases. Each floor with books has a photocopy area, a set of microfilm printers and two microfilm scanner/printers.
Photocopies are paid for with a Print Card, which cost 60 cents and can be loaded with bills up to $20. A hard copy on a copy machine costs only 5 cents, but a copy on the microfilm printer costs 23 cents. The computers and the microfilm scanners can put images on a user's flash drive for free.
This is a view of the Family History Book stacks on the first floor:
This is a view of the computer area on the third floor:
In the computer area, you send your print requests to print stations (visible above) where you pay for your prints then get them printed out.
Here is a shot of one row of the microfilm drawers - there are about 8 rows of film drawers like this on the second floor.
I will show some of the copy hardware in a later post.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
CVGS Research Group Summary and Monthly Genealogy News Summary
I posted the Genealogy News Summary for January 2009 on the Chula Vista Genealogy Cafe blog today.
I also posted the CVGS Research Group Summary - 14 January 2009 on the Chula Vista Genealogy Cafe blog today.
There is a summary of my posts about my five days of Salt Lake City adventures in Genealogy Journal - 1/8 to 1/12, 2009 on my The Geneaholic blog.
Stay tuned - I'm not done yet!
I also posted the CVGS Research Group Summary - 14 January 2009 on the Chula Vista Genealogy Cafe blog today.
There is a summary of my posts about my five days of Salt Lake City adventures in Genealogy Journal - 1/8 to 1/12, 2009 on my The Geneaholic blog.
Stay tuned - I'm not done yet!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)