Will the AncestryDNA Ethnicity Estimate Ever Settle Down?

 I received my latest AncestryDNA ethnicity estimate last week.  

1)  The latest estimate said that I was:

*  68% England & Northwestern Europe

*  13% Scotland

*  10% Sweden & Denmark

*  7% Norway

*  2% Wales.

It also broke down my ethnicity separating out my mother's ethnicity and my father's ethnicity using the new Sideview feature:

Frankly, I can't tell which of my parents is Parent 1 or Parent 2.  About 99% of my father's ancestry is from the British Isles, and about 30% of my mother's ancestry is from Germany, Netherlands and France, and one 6th great-grandmother who was Scots-Irish.  I don't know of any Sweden, Norway, Denmark or Wales ancestry back 400 years, but know that such genes may be in the British Isles because of centuries of invasions from northwestern Europe in medieval times.

2)  For reference purposes, my perceived genealogical ancestry, based on where my ancestors in each line resided in 1500 CE (this had to be an educated guess!) are:

*  68%  British Isles
*  24%  Germany/Switzerland
*  1%  Holland/Belgium
*  1%  France
*  6%  Unknown (perhaps some are French, Dutch, Scandinavian, Belgian, English, Native American, or other places)

3)  In past years, my AncestryDNA ethnicity estimates have been:

September 2021:

* 65% England & Northwestern Europe
* 10% Sweden and Denmark
* 6% Germanic Europe
* 6% Ireland
* 5% Norway
* 5% Wales
* 3% Scotland

September 2020:

* 46% England and Northwestern Europe
* 19% Scotland
* 16% Germanic Europe
* 7% Sweden
* 7% Norway
* 5% Ireland

*  November 2019:

*  63% - England, Wales, & Northwestern Europe 
*  23% Germanic Europe
*  6% - Norway
*  5% - Ireland and Scotland
*  3% - Sweden

August 2018:

*  84% England and Wales
*  13% Norway
*  1 Other Regions

February 2016:

*  66% Europe West
*  18% Ireland
*  9% Great Britain
*  3% Scandinavian
*  1% Italy/Greece
* <1% Iberian Peninsula
*  <1% Pacific Islander
*  < !% Native-American

September 2013:

*  America = < 1%
***  Native American = < 1%

*  Europe = 98%
*** Europe West = 66%
***  Ireland = 18%
*** Great Britain = 9%
*** Scandinavia = 3%
***  Italy Greece = 1%
*** Iberian Peninsula = < 1%

*  Pacific Islander = < 1%
*** Polynesia = < 1%

4)  Can you see why I am confused?  All of these ethnicity estimates are from just one autosomal DNA test of mine.  But the Ancestry reference groups keep changing.  Somehow I lost all of my "Germanic Europe" (from 23% down to 0%) and gained "Sweden & Denmark" and "Norway."  What happened to my "Native-American" and "Pacific Islander" percentages? [NOTE:  The Native-American segments have appeared in 23andMe ethnicity estimates from the beginning, on my Chromosome 12.]

I understand that there are ranges for each group, and that each reference group is not composed of persons with a mixed ancestry.  

I think that the November 2019 ethnicity estimate was the closest to my perceived genealogical ancestry.

I thought that the ethnicity estimates would settle down after several years, but nine years later they are still unsettled. 

=============================================

Disclosure:  I received a complimentary test kit from AncestryDNA a long time ago.  I have had a paid Ancestry subscription since 2000, but have received material considerations (travel, hotel, meals, etc.) over the past ten years as a Geneablogger.

The URL for this post is:  https://www.geneamusings.com/2022/04/will-ancestrydna-ethnicity-estimate.html

Copyright (c) 2022, Randall J. Seaver

Please comment on this post on the website by clicking the URL above and then the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post.  Share it on Twitter, Facebook, Google+ or Pinterest using the icons below.  Or contact me by email at randy.seaver@gmail.com.