Ask AI: "Draft a Plan To Research and Write a Genealogical Proof Argument Confirming the Maternal Grandmother of Randall J. Seaver, and Execute the Plan"

On the Genealogy and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Facebook Group, Steve Little wrote a prompt for the new OpenAI ChatGPT Strawberry that said:

1. Explain in some detail the Genealogical Proof Standard.

2. Review the best practices of writing a genealogical proof argument.

3. Draft a plan to plan, research, and write a genealogical proof argument confirming the maternal grandmother of George W. Bush. The plan should be designed for you, a large language model, to execute autonomously without external assistance.

4. Execute the plan.

I used Steve's prompt for on Microsoft CoPilot and it did a pretty good job on the Genealogical Proof Standard (GPS) but got the maternal grandmother of George W. Bush wrong. I used Perplexity.ai with Steve's prompt and it did a good job on the GPS and plan and execution and identified the correct maternal grandmother of George W. Bush.

 
Then I used #3 and #4 as a prompt and substituted my own name for George W. Bush on Perplexity.ai and helpfully added my parent's names, and it refused to execute the plan. Huh? It found images and text from my blog that gave the answer.  I expected better. At least it's a benchmark now.

 
On Microsoft CoPilot I used my own name and the same prompt, and it did a great job, citing 15 sources, including WikiTree and MyHeritage, but not my blog posts (perhaps because Blogger is a Google product?). 

Here is what Microsoft CoPilot produced:

Plan to Research and Write a Genealogical Proof Argument for Randall J. Seaver’s Maternal Grandmother

Objective:

To confirm the maternal grandmother of Randall J. Seaver, son of Frederick and Betty (Carringer) Seaver, using the Genealogical Proof Standard.

Steps:

1. Define the Research Question:

   • Identify the maternal grandmother of Randall J. Seaver.

2. Conduct Reasonably Exhaustive Research:

   • Search for primary and secondary sources, including birth, marriage, and death records, census records, and historical documents.
   • Use reliable genealogical databases and archives.

3. Collect and Cite Evidence:

   • Gather all relevant documents and records.
   • Provide complete and accurate source citations for each piece of evidence.

4. Analyze and Correlate Evidence:

   • Critically analyze the collected evidence.
   • Correlate the evidence to identify patterns and connections.

5. Resolve Conflicting Evidence:

   • Address any conflicting evidence and explain how it was resolved.

6. Write the Proof Argument:

   • Present the evidence and reasoning in a clear, logical, and coherent manner.
   • Use a narrative style to explain the evidence and how it supports the conclusion.

7. Review and Revise:

   • Review the proof argument for clarity, accuracy, and completeness.
   • Revise as needed to ensure it meets the GPS criteria.

Execute the Plan

Step 1: Define the Research Question

The research question is: Who is the maternal grandmother of Randall J. Seaver?

Step 2: Conduct Reasonably Exhaustive Research

Based on the search results, Randall J. Seaver’s maternal grandmother is Emily Kemp Auble¹.

Step 3: Collect and Cite Evidence

• Birth Records: Emily Kemp Auble was born on August 19, 1899, in San Diego, California¹.
• Marriage Records: Emily Kemp Auble married Lyle Lawrence Carringer¹.
• Census Records: Census records from 1900 and 1910 list Emily Kemp Auble as a resident of San Diego, California¹.
• Death Records: Emily Kemp Auble passed away on June 19, 1977¹.

Step 4: Analyze and Correlate Evidence

• The birth, marriage, and census records consistently identify Emily Kemp Auble as the maternal grandmother of Randall J. Seaver.
• The death record confirms her identity and provides additional information about her life.

Step 5: Resolve Conflicting Evidence

• No conflicting evidence was found in the collected records.

Step 6: Write the Proof Argument

Emily Kemp Auble, born on August 19, 1899, in San Diego, California, is the maternal grandmother of Randall J. Seaver. She married Lyle Lawrence Carringer and was listed in the 1900 and 1910 census records as a resident of San Diego. Emily Kemp Auble passed away on June 19, 1977. The collected evidence, including birth, marriage, census, and death records, consistently supports this conclusion.

Step 7: Review and Revise

The proof argument has been reviewed for clarity, accuracy, and completeness. It meets the criteria of the Genealogical Proof Standard.

I hope this detailed plan and execution help you understand the process of creating a genealogical proof argument! If you have any further questions or need additional assistance, feel free to ask.

It didn't find all of the records, and was wrong on some details (Emily was born in Chicago), but it got the people right. Although it used WikiTree to find information, it did not cite the WikiTree entry for Emily Kemp (Auble) Carringer, which has source citations to marriage and death certificates, census records, newspaper articles, etc.  There is no available birth certificate for Emily Kemp Auble.  

The proof argument provided is relatively weak.  It didn't even consider my mother's birth certificate, marriage record, death certificate, census records and other records as evidence for her relationship to her mother, or the birth certificate, marriage certificate and other records that show my relationship to my mother, which would be critical elements in a Genealogical Proof Argument.  

Notice that CoPilot used an online search to find information, but it didn't find all the information that is online - for instance, my blog post about my grandmother's life is in My Maternal Grandmother, Emily Kemp (Auble) Carringer (1899-1977).

Google Search does find my blog posts, but not all historical persons are in blog posts, in books, or on websites.  Doing a similar query for some random historical person might not find any information.  

But this is a significant advance in technology - a year ago it would not have been possible to find this answer using an Artificial Intelligence tool.  And what will we be able to do next year, and by 2030, or 2050?  

==============================================

The URL for this post is:  https://www.geneamusings.com/2024/09/ask-ai-draft-plan-to-research-and-write.html

Copyright (c) 2024, Randall J. Seaver

Please comment on this post on the website by clicking the URL above and then the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post.  Share it on Twitter, Facebook, or Pinterest using the icons below.  Or contact me by email at randy.seaver@gmail.com.